The U.S. cannabis sector has experienced a remarkable resurrection from July through early September 2025, with many leading cannabis stocks posting large gains after months of decline. The catalyst? Growing speculation that the Trump administration may follow through on federal marijuana rescheduling—a policy shift that could fundamentally transform the industry’s regulatory and financial landscape.
The Numbers Tell the Story
Since July 1, 2025, cannabis investors have witnessed some of the most dramatic gains in the sector’s volatile history. Curaleaf Holdings (OTC: CURLF), the largest U.S. multi-state operator, has been the standout performer, skyrocketing approximately 296% from $0.82 to around $3.25 from July 1 through September 9. The stock surged 65% in July alone, then exploded over 144% in August following Trump’s rescheduling comments, representing one of the strongest turnarounds among major cannabis names.
LEEF Brands (OTC: LEEEF), which recently expanded operations into New York as part of its multi-state operator strategy, has also benefited from the sector-wide enthusiasm. The stock opened July at $0.146 and now stands at $0.215, a 32% gain. The company’s strategic positioning in high-growth markets, combined with its vertical integration approach including a massive California cultivation facility, has positioned it well for potential regulatory changes.
Glass House Brands (OTC: GLASF) initially lagged behind in July, declining 16.9% as the only major cannabis stock to fall during that month’s rally. However, the company has since participated in the broader sector recovery as rescheduling speculation intensified. Since July 1, Glass House stock is up about 30%.
The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) exemplifies the sector’s dramatic volatility and recent surge. From $2.40 on July 1 to around $4.76 on September 9, MSOS has gained approximately 98%, peaking above $5.77 in late August for a 140%+ gain from its July starting point. The ETF experienced its most significant single-day gain on August 11, surging 25.67% following Trump’s public comments about rescheduling.
The ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ), which includes both U.S. and Canadian cannabis companies, gained about 88% from July 1 through today. You get the picture…
The Trump Factor: From Speculation to Statements
The cannabis rally’s primary catalyst emerged from reports that President Trump has been privately discussing marijuana rescheduling with industry leaders and donors. The Wall Street Journal revealed that Trump spoke about reclassification during a $1 million-per-plate fundraiser at his New Jersey golf club, where cannabis executives including Trulieve CEO Kim Rivers lobbied for federal reform.
On August 11, Trump made his first public comments on the issue since taking office, telling reporters: “We are looking at reclassification. We will make a determination over the next few weeks”. This marked a significant shift from his previous silence on cannabis policy and sent shockwaves through the sector, triggering CURLF’s 35% single-day gain and MSOS’s 25.67% surge.
The potential rescheduling would move marijuana from Schedule I (alongside heroin and cocaine) to Schedule III, recognizing its medical value while maintaining federal oversight. This change would enable cannabis companies to take standard business tax deductions under Section 280E, access traditional banking services more easily, and attract institutional investment previously restricted by federal illegality.
State-Level Expansion and MSO Growth
Beyond federal policy, multi-state operators continue benefiting from state-level legalization trends. LEEF Brands’ expansion into New York represents a strategic move into one of the nation’s most promising cannabis markets, expected to reach $1.5 billion in annual sales within three years of full recreational implementation.
The New York market offers particularly attractive opportunities for established operators like LEEF, which can leverage expertise and operational efficiency developed in mature markets like California. The company’s vertical integration strategy—from its 1,900-acre California cultivation facility to extraction operations —positions it well to capture market share in emerging states. In New York, for instance, products utilizing concentrates account for 55% of the market, and LEEF has already pre-sold all of its 2025 inventory.
Conclusion
The cannabis sector’s summer 2025 rally demonstrates both the potential rewards and risks of investing in a heavily regulated, politically sensitive industry. With stocks like Curaleaf posting nearly 300% gains in just over two months, Trump’s rescheduling comments have provided a powerful catalyst that has dramatically exceeded historical precedents for cannabis stock movements.
For now, investors are betting that this time is different—that federal rescheduling will finally provide the regulatory clarity and financial access that has eluded the cannabis industry for years. Whether this proves to be another false dawn or the beginning of a genuine transformation remains to be seen, but the stakes have never been higher for cannabis investors and the companies they support.
The sector’s extreme volatility, exemplified by CURLF’s transformation from an 82-cent stock to over $3.25 in just over two months, serves as both a testament to the potential rewards of cannabis investing and a stark reminder of the risks inherent in betting on policy-driven sectors. As Trump’s promised timeline approaches, the next few weeks could prove pivotal for determining whether this remarkable rally has legs or will join the long list of cannabis false starts.
